The gross revenue of Brazilian rural premises, known as GPV, is expected to reach R$1.26 trillion in 2023, equivalent to US$ 262.3 billion. The figure is estimated by the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), considering agricultural and cattle-raising production based on the average worth received by farmers across the country.
The figure reflects a real price drop in 16 of the 28 products analyzed by the report considering the period from January to June 2023. Among them are soybean (21%), corn (33%), and beef (8%). These three products together represent a share of 56.4% of the GVP.
However, the trend is for some prices to increase by the end of the year. Soybean has a projected GVP of 0.6%, and production is estimated to increase by 23.1%. However, its prices are 18.3% below the average for the whole year of 2022. Corn production is estimated to increase by 12.8%, with prices 14.4% lower than the previous year. Thus, the projected GVP shows a decrease of 3.4% for 2023. It is worth remembering that the second corn crop represents 30% of the harvested area.
Regarding wheat, the GVP is projected to decline by around 5.4%. Production is estimated to grow by 11.4%, but prices are expected to fall by 15%. Most Brazilian states are 100% seeded, with some exceptions in the south (Paraná, with 96% of the area sown, and Santa Catarina, with 54%) and mid-west (Goiás, with 31%) of the country.
As a result, the GVP for agriculture is estimated at R$ 849.6 billion for 2023, 0.9% higher than in 2022.
In the livestock sector, for beef cattle, prices are 11.3% below the average of 2022 due to the increase in the supply of head of cattle. For 2023, a production of 10.5 million tons of beef is estimated, representing an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous year. Despite the increase in production, the GVP of beef shows a reduction of 8.3%, resulting in lower prices.
The projected milk production is 33.9 billion liters, 1.7% above the 2022 result, with prices 4.7% above the previous year’s average. Therefore, milk’s GVP should reach R$ 89.3 billion, an increase of 6.4% compared to 2022.
For laying poultry, egg prices showed an increase of 23.9% compared to the 2022 average. In addition, the estimated production is positive by 1.5%, so its GVP should show an increase of 25.8% for 2023.
Concerning pork, both production and prices are estimated to be positive, with production increasing by 2.0% and prices, by 9.5%. Therefore, an increase of 11.7% in its GPV is projected in 2023.
The estimate for the livestock GPV in 2023 is R$ 408.5 billion, a decrease of 2.4% compared to the previous year.