In October, the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance data showed the country is heading for a positive year-end. That month, the value of goods traded abroad reached US$ 13.4 billion, a 2.3% drop compared to the same period in 2022. Despite the downturn, the year-to-date result shows a 3% increase in our exports compared to 2022.
The leading product in our October agribusiness export line was soybean, which made up 21.6% of total exports and yielded US$ 2.9 billion in revenue, an increase of 24% compared to the same period in 2022. The second most exported product was corn, which increased 0.02% compared to October 2022 and yielded US$ 1.9 billion. The other notable exports in the Brazilian agribusiness line were raw sugarcane, fresh beef, and soybean bran.
Brazil’s main export destination in October 2023 was China, with a share of 36.4%, followed by the European Union (EU) (13.4%) and the United States (US) (5.9%). Other countries also had remarkable shares: Japan (3.1%), Indonesia (2.7%). South Korea (2.2%), Iran (2.1%), India (1.9%), United Arab Emirates (1.8%), and Saudi Arabia (1.6%).
Some destination countries showed a significant performance in October 2023 compared to October 2022. Among these countries, the highlights are India (+116%), driven by raw sugarcane (an increase of US$ 197.7 million), and Indonesia (+65.7%), driven by soybean bran exports (an increase of US$ 144 million).
Trade balance highlight: corn
Brazil is the world’s third-largest corn producer, behind the United States and China. According to projections made by the National Supply Company (CONAB) in November 2023, in the 2023/2024 harvest, Brazil’s corn production is expected to fall by 9.6% compared to the previous harvest, reaching 119.1 million tons.
In 2022, Brazil was the world’s second-largest exporter of corn, with exports reaching 43.2 million tons, corresponding to US$12.1 billion. In 2023, in the year to October, exports totaled 42.4 million tons and US$ 10.5 billion. In the last month, the three main destinations for exports of the product in question are China (40.9% of the total; 3.5 million tons); Japan (11.5%; 967.2 thousand tons); and the European Union (8.3%; 701.8 thousand tons).
According to the World Bank, there was an upward movement in international corn prices from February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Prices accelerated until April 2022 (US$ 348.17/tonne), when they reached their highest price in the 2013-2023 period. Prices then fluctuated, reaching US$ 343.56/tonne in October 2022.
However, from November 2022 onwards, prices showed a downward trend, culminating in August 2023 with a price of US$207.61/tonne. In 2023, up to October, the price of a ton of corn in US dollars fell by an average of 18.4%. Considering the month of October alone, the ton of corn is traded for US$ 230.70 (-32.9% compared to the price in October 2022).