Estimates show that the 2024 Brazilian coffee harvest will be a favorable season, with an estimated production of 58.08 million bags of processed coffee, 5.5% higher than in 2023. The total area allotted for coffee growing in the country in 2024 (in Arabica and Conilon species) is 2.25 million hectares, an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous harvest.
This area includes 1.92 million hectares of producing crops, up 2.4% compared to 2023, and 336,300 hectares more are in developing stages, down 7% on the same period.
In its January report, the National Supply Company (CONAB) pointed out that the 2021 and 2022 harvests had low yields due to adverse weather conditions, which undermined the upward trend in the production series. However, in 2023, with more favorable weather conditions, the recovery of yields began.
As for the national average coffee production, the first projection shows a volume of 30.3 bags per hectare, around 3% higher than the previous harvest. Arabica coffee productivity is estimated at 26.7 sacks/ha, up 2% from the 2023 crop, and Conilon coffee at 44.3 sacks/ha, up 6.2% from the previous crop.
Coffee production by states
Regarding production by state, Minas Gerais has an estimated volume of 29.18 million bags, an increase of 0.6% compared to the total amount harvested in the previous season, due to the increase in the producing area and, above all, the positive biennial cycle, as well as the crops’ better conditions. In Espírito Santo, the total is also expected to grow by 15.4%, to 15.01 million bags; Espírito Santo’s crop includes both Conilon coffee, which is estimated at 11.06 million bags, up 9% from the previous harvest, and the Arabica species, which is expected to produce 3.95 million bags, 38.2% more than the volume harvested in the last cycle.
Other increases are seen in São Paulo, where production is expected to reach 5.4 million bags of the Arabica species, an increase of 7.4% compared to the result obtained in 2023; in Bahia, where the increase of 6.4% should provide 3.61 million bags across the state; and in Rondônia, where the volume is estimated at 3.19 million bags of Conilon coffee, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous harvest. Production is also increasing in Rio de Janeiro, Mato Grosso, and Goiás. Only in Paraná, where Arabica coffee is predominantly grown, the projection is for stability.
Brazilian coffee market
Brazil exported 39.2 million 60-kilo bags of coffee in 2023, down 1.3% from the previous year. According to the Ministry of Development,Industry and Export (MDIC) report, this exports decrease was influenced by the restriction of stocks at the year’s beginning, following adverse weather conditions that limited national production in the 2021 and 2022 harvests. The product was traded with 152 countries in 2023, its main destinations being the United States and Germany. Trading values totalled US$ 8.1 billion in 2023, down 12.5% compared to the previous year.
World coffee production for the 2023-24 harvest is estimated at 171.4 million 60-kilo bags, representing an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous season. The three main coffee-producing countries (Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, respectively) are projecting growth in the 2023-24 harvest. Global coffee consumption, estimated at 169.5 million 60-kilo bags, is a new record and up 0.3% on the previous cycle.