The year 2023 is arriving, and it comes with new challenges. According to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), the upcoming year will bring opportunities for Brazil to continue increasing its participation in international agricultural trade and fulfilling its purpose of being a major food supplier to the rest of the world, contributing to global food security.
However, CNA expects a slowdown in the international trade of goods. This is based on an estimate from the World Trade Organization (WTO): an increase of only 1% in the traded volume, well below the 3.4% expected for this year.
Therefore, agricultural trade should follow the same trend, growing at lower levels than in previous years due to the slower growth of imports from China, the world economic recovery due to the Covid pandemic, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its negative impacts (increased input prices, energy crisis, and reduced grain supply).
On the other hand, it is expected an increase in world imports of the main products Brazil exports, but at lower rates than those seen in previous years. Next year, the world consumption of soy should increase by 1%, especially in developing countries, which should be responsible for 74% of this consumption in 2023.
Among the activities for next year, CNA plans to continue with initiatives to advocate for farmers’ interests, avoiding the imposition of unjustified trade barriers and the taxation of exports. CNA will also continue carrying out actions to promote Brazilian agribusiness, such as AgroBrazil, a project designed to host foreign diplomatic representatives to learn about the reality of the sector. The internationalization of small- and medium-sized rural producers should also be deepened through specific projects with this purpose, such as Agro.BR.
Diversity
Another important goal of Brazilian farmers is to expand the opening of new products for countries like China, the main destination for agribusiness exports, aiming at the increase in registrations of exporting businesses, especially for fresh beef. There is also the intent to conclude the opening process for soybean bran, as well as to increase the sales of corn and peanuts.
CNA also expects the advancement of trade agreements and will monitor and subsidize the government to avoid losses to Brazilian rural producers, with special attention to the markets of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
The farmers’ 2022
2022 was a year marked by a robust increase in input costs in the agriculture and livestock sector, especially with the increase in prices of pesticides and fertilizers. This is the main reason for the agribusiness GDP fall in the year. The decrease in relevant crops such as soybean and sugar cane also contributes to this result.
The Gross Production Value (GPV) should reach R$ 1.3 trillion in 2022, a growth of 2.2% compared to 2021. In agriculture, revenue should increase by 3.3% compared to 2021, reaching R$ 909.3 billion. In livestock, the estimates for this year are for stability, with a 0.1% increase, reaching R$ 448.5 billion. The main chains that most influence the GVP are soybean, beef, and corn, which together represent 58.4% of the total.
In foreign trade, from January to November 2022, Brazilian exports of agricultural products totaled US$ 148.3 billion, exceeding 23.1% of the total traded in all of 2021, US$ 120.5 billion. In the first 11 months of 2022, agribusiness accounted for 48% of Brazil’s total foreign sales.
Main exported products
Soybean
US$ 45.4 billion
+21.9%
Beef
US$ 11.1 billion
+50.2%
Corn
US$ 10.4 billion
+209.7%
Soybean bran
US$ 9.8 billion
+46.5%
Raw sugar
US$ 9.1 billion
+23.6%
Main imported products
Wheat
US$ 1.8 billion
+21.9%
Paper
US$ 0.8 billion
+4%
Palm oil
US$ 0.8 billion
+28.4%
Fresh salmon
US$ 0.7 billion
+21.6%
Malt
US$ 0.7 billion
+10.6%